Built for the long term.
Traditional creative scenarios have some challenges. Signpost was created to address these.
Strategy making is heavily dependant on forecasting which is highly challenging for developing strategy that last decades. Statistical forecasts that go out more than 6 months are limited and rapidly become unreliable.
Foresighting is an interesting technique and can generate good insights into potential future challenges but these foresights are inherently biased which limits their effectiveness. Extrapolation from the past is good up to a point, but it can’t account for the previously unseen event.
What has been missing in this space is a platform that can generate scenarios that are anchored in data and incorporate expert input to provide a set of highly plausible futures and a prediction of their likelihood.
Signpost provides data driven strategic scenarios.
We use historical data to model the past and then incorporate expert input into our forecasts. Our clustering algorithm is run over the top of the model and these become the basis of the scenarios. It is a robust process that integrates technology, data and expertise.
Strategic scenarios have value because they present a set of plausible futures. Signpost not only provides a set of futures, it also gives you the probability. With this knowledge it’s then possible to make plans to address each scenario. And because Signpost has regular data updates, you can see when regimes change and new scenarios surface.
Understand what drives each scenario and what happens when a shock is introduced. Monitor for inflections so your organisation is optimally placed to exploit structural changes.
Signpost has been built to help you at each stage of the strategy process, whether you are building new strategy, revising your current strategy or repositioning. And it’s built for the long term, we can provide you with forecasts out to 30 years along with the uncertainty around the forecast.
